Is the US Abandoning the Global Rules-Based Order? Insights from Aakar Patel

The Current State of the US Economy and Global Relations

The United States, with a population of 340 million, mirrors the combined size of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Representing 4% of the global populace, Americans are the primary beneficiaries of what is termed the rules-based order established post-World War II by the US and its European allies. This framework promotes global collaboration through institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. The US president is often referred to as the 'leader of the free world,' a title embraced without irony. According to the International Monetary Fund, the per capita income in the US is nearly $90,000, while in India, it is less than $3,000, illustrating a stark economic disparity.

Despite a recent adjustment in job statistics, the US is experiencing what is known as full employment, with unemployment rates hovering around 4%. This situation highlights a favorable economic landscape in the US, especially when juxtaposed with countries like India, where poverty and unemployment remain pressing issues, particularly in the absence of stable, salaried jobs.

However, the US expresses dissatisfaction with the global landscape, claiming it is being exploited, as articulated by the current president. In response, he has implemented measures to restrict imports from other nations, which could adversely affect India, its largest export market. A 25% tariff on Indian goods would likely diminish demand, negatively impacting exporters. This reality cannot be overlooked; if tariffs persist, Indian interests will suffer, regardless of who ultimately bears the cost.

Within the US political discourse, there is little meaningful discussion about whether President Trump's policies undermine the global rules-based order and harm its allies, not to mention poorer nations. The US has effectively dismantled a system where tariffs were regulated under WTO guidelines, which allowed for appeals. By disregarding these protocols, the US is weakening a framework that has historically benefited it, thereby causing harm to the global community.

Moreover, the US's complicity in the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza represents another breach of the rules-based order. While the US has historically positioned itself as a liberator from tyranny, it has shielded Israel amidst its military actions against Palestinians and its aggressive stance towards Iran. Despite a global outcry for an end to the violence in Gaza, the US has utilized its veto power to permit this ongoing tragedy.

The actions of the US signal a departure from the established rules-based order, favoring a strategy of leveraging its power to extract concessions from the international community.

Several implications arise from these developments. Firstly, the US has set a concerning precedent; future powerful nations may emulate its approach towards weaker states, legitimizing a might-is-right mentality over a rules-based framework. Resistance from the global south remains weak, and internal divisions within BRICS have further facilitated American dominance.

Secondly, it is crucial to evaluate the effectiveness of India's diplomatic approach. The country has sacrificed decades of consensus on issues like Palestine for closer ties with Israel. Despite the honors bestowed upon the US president and efforts to engage Indian-Americans in supporting him, tangible benefits have been elusive. Leaders often heed only their internal narratives, yet this observation must be articulated.

Lastly, one must ponder the underlying factors driving the US's current behavior. Given its wealth and stable economy, why is the US exhibiting such erratic conduct? The answer lies in the ascendance of the global south, particularly China's rise. If current trends persist, the US may soon find itself no longer the world's largest economy, a scenario deemed unacceptable by many in the West. This shift threatens to disrupt centuries of dominance in regions like North America, Australia, and South Africa, as well as ongoing conflicts in places like Palestine.

As the global landscape evolves, the West's ability to maintain control is diminishing. The US's abandonment of the rules-based order reflects this reality, leading to a reliance on sheer power. This period poses significant risks for the world, especially for nations striving for stability and cooperation to alleviate poverty.